Content
- Stars of sport
- Types of Horse Race Bets
- All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro - and there's no Cheltenham thrill like it
- Check out all our bets at Lingfield, Beverley, Listowel, Warwick and Newcastle on Tuesday
- Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365
- Showcase Trophy Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Showcase Meeting)
- WORLDWIDE STAKES
- Royal Ascot 2024 day one review & replays Rosallion wins St James's Palace Stakes
- Horse Racing Tips: Jason Weaver’s 2024 Breeders Cup picks on Friday features an 11/2 fancy
- 30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)
- Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 4 👇🏼
- Altior wins the Champion Chase
- ‘Devastated’ Aidan O’Brien hits out at Melbourne Cup stewards as Jan Brueghel is ruled out
- Horse racing tips: 11-1 shot will relish the soft ground and can bolt up at Catterick
That third dance was hastily arranged to facilitate qualification for the Boodles though I'm not sure 137 is a gimme of a mark considering he was only a mildly progressive mid-70's handicapper on the level for Sir Mark Prescott. A feature of the handicap hurdles this year is the almost total dominance of the top end of the handicap by Irish runners. This is as a direct result of the recalibration of ratings in the British hurdling division and, depending on your perspective, it either shows how much better the Irish horses are or it gives Team GB (ugh) a better chance.
Stars of sport
Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future. Get Rhythm is worth keeping an Bolts Up Daily eye on, although testing ground is a concern. Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds. He looks progressive, but hasn’t been missed in the market.
Types of Horse Race Bets
Brian Ellison was very confident that he was coming back to form when asked in a recent interview about his 9-year-old for Sky Sports Racing. From the surface underneath, to the topography of the track, to the tightness of the bends, every racecourse in Britain and Ireland is unique. Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.
All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro - and there's no Cheltenham thrill like it
So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse's name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I've always been a big believer that it's the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that's a debate that continues to run.
Check out all our bets at Lingfield, Beverley, Listowel, Warwick and Newcastle on Tuesday
We have already noted some positives connected with Irish runners or those that raced in Ireland last time. It goes without saying that the vast majority of horses racing at Cheltenham that raced in Ireland last time out would have been from Irish stables; in fact 97% of them were. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have by far the poorest strike rate as you would expect. They have incurred losses of £116.97 (ROI -8.3%) over the period of study. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have not surprisingly struggled even more when the race at Cheltenham is a Graded one – in these races their record reads 50 wins from 957 (SR 5.2%) for a loss of £149.46 (ROI -15.6%).
- We came over in the nice interchange period, and we need not have worried because she settled in brilliantly, and the proof was in the pudding today.
- We know she seems to thrive at the Festival and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces could improve her performance against Lossiemouth.
- Successful in spells with John Gosden and Ralph Beckett, the son of Galileo was off the track for 511 days before making the frame twice from three attempts over hurdles.
- That may not sound exciting right now but it is odds on to look value on the day.
- FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock.
- Looking for correlation is difficult in what is, granted, a crowded table.
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Although GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has to prove himself over an extra two and a half furlongs, he has a touch of brilliance about him suggesting he can prevail in a Gold Cup. Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival success, and he relishes spring ground. Still only seven years of age, he is also versatile regarding tactics and there is an awful lot to like about his credentials. Hunters Yarn is a horse that jumps off the page in this race. The stable have won this twice in the last 3 years and tend to have a good horse in it.
Showcase Trophy Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Showcase Meeting)
- His Grade I success at Naas last time was achieved with authority and we know that he can battle when needed.
- He has not been disgraced since, but the drop back to six furlongs looks a good move.
- That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence.
- He was no match for Al Aasy last time but this track and ground brings out the best in him.
- Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022.
- If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works.
- Free Horse Racing Tips are tips and predictions on upcoming horse racing events that are shared for free by tipsters.
I'd rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him. In the end, I'm swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well. A bit of a wise guy horse on the preview circuit has been Mistergif, another Willie wunner, this one in the double green of Munir and Souede. Rated 75 or so on the flat in France, he failed to win in nine starts before trying hurdling. Under the new code, he was fifth in a Listed race on his debut and then second in a conditions event, both at Auteuil; but the horse that beat him on that final French start is zero from five (fallen three times, third once) since.
WORLDWIDE STAKES
All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury's Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November. Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls' yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling's Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn't be overlooked in this race. Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January.
Royal Ascot 2024 day one review & replays Rosallion wins St James's Palace Stakes
On ratings she has a few pounds to find with some of these but her trainer is making optimistic noises (for whatever that is worth). It will be quick and there will be some trouble in transit for a few. Hopefully Frodon gets them spaced out behind and all have their chance. Saint Sam and Magic Daze are the most likely leaders, but Blue Lord and Riviere d'Etel have led or pressed the pace in at least two of their most recent four starts as well.
- Next in the lists, at 10/1, is Al Boum Photo, winner of the 2019 and 2020 Gold Cups and third last year.
- As such, he’s short enough to be backing at current odds.
- If you're John Butler or Mick Appleby - with the greatest respect to those genuinely fine exponents of their craft - you don't have the luxury of a conveyor belt of million-pound yearlings lolloping into your barn annually.
- Paul Nicholls has enjoyed enjoyed a relative resurgence in the last two renewals courtesy of that hat-trick of Grade 1 scores.
- Mind you, they did last season, CPS prevailing by most of four lengths.
Horse Racing Tips: Jason Weaver’s 2024 Breeders Cup picks on Friday features an 11/2 fancy
We’ve gone through all FIVE cards on Tuesday so here’s what we’re backing. All our selections can be added straight to your bet365 bet slip (just click the orange links). MITBAAHY didn’t get the breaks when edged out by Raasel at Sandown Park last time, and has sound prospects of gaining his revenge. Simply register, place a £10 wager on the selection of your choice and you will qualify for this unbeatable welcome offer.
30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)
Going a step further, I'd favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I'll come on to. And I'd especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.
- MAHLER MISSION has been kept fresh since a fine second in the Coral Gold Cup last Autumn.
- The versatility of PRESENTING PERCY is rare in a staying chaser and that quality suggests he is a cut above the average.
- By incorporating Get Your Tips Out into their betting routines, punters gain access to a wealth of information that simplifies their decision-making process.
- He beat 13 rivals the first day and eleven the second and, well, he just keeps winning.
- He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.
He's no longer an each way price so I hope he'll go very close to winning. Last time out, Edwardstone looked a new man under revised tactics. Sent forward in the four-runner heavy ground Grade 2 Game Spirit he barreled clear by 40 lengths from Funabule Sivola.
“At Doncaster and Sandown he maybe had to run to the level he showed last year to win them, but I think even with defeat in the Lockinge, his run told us he was a Group One horse and today confirmed it. “I’m delighted for my team, everyone works so hard at home. Docklands emerged from the chasing pack to lay down a challenge, but Charyn had enough in the tank to repel the runner-up and had two-and-a-quarter lengths in hand at the line. In accounting for stablemate Haatem in the Irish Guineas he as expected got back on track, and duly lined up against a very deep field in the day one highlight at Royal Ascot.
‘Devastated’ Aidan O’Brien hits out at Melbourne Cup stewards as Jan Brueghel is ruled out
If you don't believe me, I've copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He's won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you're tempted to pile in at cramped odds. Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and - worse - 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance.
David Pipe sends a rare runner on the 710-mile round trip to Newcastle on Thursday
Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I'm not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed. There is little doubt in anyone's mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form.
Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block - accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry's two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.
“I wouldn’t complain at Alexis (Pouchin); I’m happy with the ride, but he started galloping the last 200 metres when he had the gap. When he saw the horse coming along it was too late, the other two went already. But it was good to see that he is of the level to run with the best. "I just really hope the that one day they go a really good gallop so that we get to see him really show his true potential. At the moment he's just showing how versatile he really is. POLITOLOGUE Has enjoyed a fine season but was no match for Altior at Newbury recently; tough and consistent, he has place prospects. DOUVAN Suffered serious injury in this race a year ago and not run since; hugely talented but remains to be seen if he can recover that level of form.
- Buick has strong claims of landing a double with REBEL'S ROMANCE, the favourite for the Group 3L'Ormarins Queen's Plate Glorious Stakes (4.10).
- Thirty others tried and failed, though you'd have got paid out on at least six of them for a place.
- This will help you understand how the horse might fare in today's race.
- Betfair allows you to stream their selection of live races from a minimum £0.50 bet.
- It is often said of the Gallagher that it's more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme - a two mile burn up from flag fall.
Omniscient failed to justify 5-4 favouritism but made no mistake over a mile and a quarter at Yarmouth eight days ago, still looking rough hewn in thumping At Liberty by five and a half lengths. REBEL’S ROMANCE, who is unbeaten in three starts in Europe, rates much the best option. Another personal best came via a length-and-and-a-half margin from Live In The Dream in the Listed Scurry Stakes over the minimum trip at Sandown Park on the second Saturday in June. And Mitbaahy was unfortunate not to rack up the hat-trick over the same course and distance on the Coral-Eclipse undercard last time out.
MT - This is a great betting race, as it's a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.
We have a team of experts who provide consistently successful tips and have a loyal following of satisfied bettors. We also provide detailed analysis and reasoning behind their tips, giving bettors a better understanding of the races. Free Horse Racing Tips are tips and predictions on upcoming horse racing events that are shared for free by tipsters.
He's been aggressively ascendant, rising from a rating of 139 at season start to his current 156; but that still leaves him with a stone and more to find when Honeysuckle's mares' allowance is incorporated. The traditional pipe opener restored to its 1.30 tapes up slot and, after much hokey cokeying amongst the mega stable entries we have our list of runners and riders fixed. It's a yes for Dysart Dynamo, Constitution Hill and Jonbon but a 'see you tomorrow' for Sir Gerhard. If we focus only on LTO winners, it is interesting that each LTO Graded category made a small individual profit to BSP, as did those who won a Listed contest. There is a sliding scale of strike rates as you would expect.
Paul Nicholls has a very good record in handicap hurdles, too, in contrast to his Grade 1 performance in recent seasons. But the likes of Evan Williams and Charlie Longsdon (0 from 31, 0 places, between them), Noel Meade and Dr Richard Newland (0 from 27, 3 places, collectively) are probably best passed up. Naturally, then, the other 50 winners came from horses priced at 16/1 or shorter, the 381 such runners losing just 31 points at SP, and breaking even at BSP.
Paul Nicholls has enjoyed enjoyed a relative resurgence in the last two renewals courtesy of that hat-trick of Grade 1 scores. He comes to Cheltenham Festival 2021 in similar form to 2019. It is fair to say that nobody really knows what to expect of the Cullentra House yard, currently fronted by Denise Foster while Gordon Elliott serves out his suspension. What we do know is that flagbearers like Envoi Allen have been moved to other yards and that has to have a negative bearing on overall figures this time around.
And, of course, that's absolutely fine because - remember - the number one takeaway from these million words is, Choose Your Battles. Play where you know most, and where you're as comfortable as possible with what you don't know. Like which trainers, and which of their horses, might leap forward on handicap bow. Even at relatively short odds of 7/2, there may be a losing run of 27 or 28 bets in a 1000 race sample; so we have to be set up, emotionally and financially, to deal with that. Betting is fun, perhaps more so on horses than most other sports because of the speed with which the result is known; that rapid production of endorphins induced by the short duration of a race compared with, say, a football match. This doesn’t look to be the deepest Novice hurdle so UNIVERSAL DAVE may well be able to shoulder a penalty and land a second career success.
The best bet of Wednesday runs in the hardest race of the day. The Fred Winter is like a game of poker with trainers keeping all sorts of tricks up their sleeves with these inexperienced horses. His trainer, Brian Ellison, had the third in this race last year with Nietzsche and I sense The King Of May is a far better horse than him. Brian does not say much but when he does speak, you listen. He’s a very shrewd trainer who has Definitely Red in the Gold Cup. With the more recent addition of betting apps, it has become easier than ever before for punters to back a horse.
Asfoora joins Choisir (2003), Takeover Target (2006), Miss Andretti (2007), Scenic Blast (2009) and Nature Strip (2022) on the Australian roll of honour in what was formerly the King’s Stand Stakes. The five-year-old had made it to the track just twice since his fast-finishing fourth in the St James’s Palace Stakes two years ago, but he served notice there may still be a big prize on his horizon with a pleasing performance. “The Wolferton was the alternative but it’s on the round course and you need a lot more racing luck on there. As Docklands carries the colours of Australian-based owners OTI Racing, he is set for a trip to the southern hemisphere later in the year. “That was a really good run, it’s just a shame to miss out. He deserved it and we really thought he had a chance,” said Turner.
“He didn’t have much of a race in France, it was a non event, so that is his first real race (of the season) today and he handled the ground. I think we will stay at a mile, looking at him today he could step up a little bit further, but we will see. He was bred by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid and is a great advert for a new stallion. Quite often you call these horses something that they’re not, because you want them to be the best horse you’ve trained – and quite often you are disappointed. I don’t know how we messed it up, but that’s behind us now. Rosallion came out on top in the eagerly-anticipated clash of three 2000 Guineas winners in the St James’s Palace Stakes, as he lived up to all of Richard Hannon’s billing as the best horse he has ever trained.
The Williams team have excellent contacts in France and have a long history of recruiting nice hurdlers from across the channel. I’d love him to be up there from the outset as there isn’t much pace elsewhere in the race and that looks the best scenario for Jack Tudor to get a truly run race to suit. It must be a recurring issue they keep having to tinker with. Of course, if a horse keeps running badly you'd be wise to give it a wide berth, but ignoring one or two bad runs can lead you to back winners at decent prices.
If we combine the clear favourite records of Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead, 39.1% of them won (54 wins from 138) for a profit of £27.25 (ROI +19.7%). The ‘rise’ of Irish runners will be a theme of this piece, and this can be seen when we look at a year by year breakdown of clear favourites that were trained in Ireland. As you can see, the win percentage / strike rate peaked in 2016 at 33.33%, whereas 2010, 2014 and 2017 saw percentages dip under half that figure. Eight of the years would have turned a profit, seven a loss. Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size.